September 10, 2026
Energy Stocks Hit a 25-Year High
IXC and XLE look priced for an oil shock. Dividends and buybacks change fast if Brent retreats.
The iShares Global Energy ETF (IXC) has cleared levels it has not traded at since its November 2001 launch, and it is holding there today with Brent crude sitting near $101 a barrel after pushing through $101 on Wednesday. That is not background noise. It is the clearest signal available that the Iran conflict has reorganized this market, and energy equity holders are sitting on multi-decade gains to prove it.
Elon Musk Just Called the Dollar “Hopeless” – Then Reinvented It
What’s going on with Elon Musk? Last year, he launched a full-blown attack on the U.S. dollar, calling it “hopeless.” And within months, he hatched a plan to reinvent the world reserve currency. Now, with the blessing of President Trump and the U.S. Treasury, it’s coming to life. And investors who grasp what’s going on could make a fortune.
The question worth asking right now is not whether energy stocks deserve to be at all-time highs. They do, for the moment. The question is what those positions are actually worth if the geopolitical premium comes out of oil.
What the rotation tells you. The sector scorecard in 2026 has one dominant story: energy is leading the S&P 500 by a wide margin year to date, while consumer discretionary has been the laggard and has spent parts of the year in negative territory. That is a war-driven rotation, and it is unusually clean. Energy sector earnings have jumped on higher oil prices, driving earnings upgrades throughout the year. Meanwhile, the consumer is absorbing the gasoline bill. Both moves come from the same source: triple-digit Brent.
How could the “The American Energy Endgame” impact your money?
Larry Benedict spent 20 straight years as a money manager without a single losing year.
And right now, he is laser-focused on a White House plan he believes could reshape America’s wealth, security, and place in the world.
He calls it “The American Energy Endgame.”
Its first move could come as soon as September 15… and Larry believes it could send billions surging into one specific market.
At the center of it is one overlooked ticker he is now revealing completely free.
That single variable now dominates the income math for every name in IXC. Exxon Mobil (XOM) returned $37.2 billion to shareholders in 2025 alone, split between dividends and buybacks, one of the largest capital return programs in the S&P 500. Shell (SHEL) raised its dividend 5% and kept its quarterly share buyback program at $3.0 billion in May. Chevron (CVX) carries a higher dividend yield than XOM, partly because the market prices less of a portfolio premium into the stock. Those are real numbers, earned at oil prices that have averaged well above $80 this year.
The scenario worth stress-testing. The U.S. Energy Information Administration, in its September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, forecasts Brent averaging around $90 a barrel in the second half of 2026. That is already about $11 below where it trades today. An actual diplomatic resolution, or a strategic reserve release that sticks, could push prices toward $80 faster than most energy bulls are currently pricing.
At $80 Brent, free cash flow across the majors compresses meaningfully. Oil company dividends and stock buybacks face pressure when crude falls, and analysts have made that case before at levels far below today’s. XOM has used several years of strong prices to build balance sheet strength that makes its dividend more defensible across the cycle. CVX and SHEL carry more variability. TotalEnergies (TTE), a significant IXC holding with heavier geopolitical exposure, faces its own set of risks if the conflict deescalates sharply.
Nuclear was left for dead.
Ignored. Mocked. Politically inconvenient.
Now energy reality is setting in and investors who wrote it off are scrambling to catch up.
7 Top Nuclear Stocks to Buy Now reveals the companies positioned to benefit as capital floods back in.
Download the full list now – before the market finishes correcting this mistake without you.
The disciplined move at a record. Trimming into strength is not a bearish call on energy. It is basic portfolio hygiene. Energy is still one of the cheaper sectors on forward earnings, and the valuation case can remain intact even after a partial reduction. What changes at a 25-year high is the risk-reward on the full position. Investors who have ridden IXC or XLE from last year’s lows now hold a position whose income assumptions are tied almost entirely to a conflict premium in oil that did not exist 18 months ago.
The dividends from XOM, CVX, and SHEL are real. The buybacks are funded. But their sustainability at current pace depends heavily on where Brent settles once the shooting stops, or simply pauses. Answering that question honestly, and sizing the position accordingly, is the difference between riding a trade and building wealth around it.
