Three days into the job and Kevin Warsh is already staring down a calendar that doesn’t give him room to breathe.

He was confirmed May 13 in a 54-45 Senate vote – the most partisan Fed confirmation in history – and officially took the chair on May 15. What he walked into: CPI running at 3.8% annually, oil above $100 a barrel as conflict in the Middle East keeps Strait of Hormuz supply constrained, and a rate-setting committee that logged an 8-4 vote at its last meeting. One member wanted a cut. Three others pushed back against any language that even implied future easing might be on the table. That’s not a committee. That’s four separate camps loosely sharing a conference room.

Slight tangent, but it matters: the 3.8% headline CPI is being carried in large part by energy – up 17.9% year over year. Strip that out and core CPI sits at 2.8%, which is uncomfortable but not panic-worthy. The problem is you can’t strip out energy at the gas pump. National average is around $4.50 a gallon and consumers are feeling it. That’s the part that tends to move sentiment surveys in ugly directions, which brings us to Friday.

But Wednesday first.

The April FOMC minutes drop at 2:00 p.m. ET on May 20. These are Powell’s final minutes as chair, and given that 8-4 vote, they’re going to read like a window into a committee pulling in three different directions at once. Who pushed hardest for a hike signal? Who’s holding the line on cuts? How much internal disagreement is Warsh actually inheriting? The minutes won’t answer all of that cleanly – they never do – but they’ll give enough texture to start filling in the blanks before his first meeting June 16-17.

The fed funds rate is sitting at 3.50%–3.75%, held there for a third straight meeting in April. Traders have rates on hold through year-end baked in, with a roughly 30% chance of a hike by December – a number that’s been quietly creeping higher.

The rest of the week fills out like this: Monday brings the NY Fed Business Leaders Survey and Household Spending data, both worth watching for services-sector temperature. Tuesday has New Residential Construction and NAR Pending Home Sales – housing has been soft for months and any further deterioration tightens the argument for holding rates. Thursday is the busiest day: Initial Jobless Claims (running 190K–215K lately, labor market still holding), the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, and flash PMI readings for May – the first real look at how the economy behaved this month. Then Friday closes with final Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which given gas prices could come in soft.

What’s interesting is that none of this week’s data will force the Fed’s hand before June. But a string of soft readings – housing, claims, sentiment – starts building a case. And a hot PMI or sticky claims number does the opposite. Either way, Warsh is watching.

EY’s research team flagged last week that CPI could cross 4% in May if energy holds at current levels. That number isn’t confirmed yet. But it’s sitting in the back of everyone’s head going into Wednesday’s minutes release – and it probably should be.

– Investing Wealth Daily